Understanding Overconfidence in What We Know to Be True
As human beings, we are inclined to perceive everything from the perspective of How I see it is how it is. We all are more confident in our perceptions than we should be. One study found that respondents who answered more factual questions correctly were more likely to agree with the scientific consensus about each topic. Those who answered many objective questions incorrectly but thought they understood specific topics well were more likely to disagree with the scientific consensus. For example, many who said that they would “definitely not get the vaccine” incorrectly answered questions about how viruses spread and how vaccines work, but then said they thought they had a “thorough understanding” of how a COVID-19 vaccine would work (Light, 2022).
“For many years, well-intentioned people thought that the way to bring people more in line with scientific consensus was to teach them the knowledge they lacked,” the author of the study says. “Unfortunately, our research suggests that there may be a problem of overconfidence getting in the way of learning. . . . If people think they know a lot, they have minimal motivation to learn more” (Light, 2022). You might think that the cure for misinformation is accurate information. Unfortunately, research has shown that this is not the case.
Public attitudes that oppose scientific consensus can be disastrous when this dynamic is related to issues such as the rejection of vaccines and resistance to climate change mitigation policies. Five studies examining the interrelationships between opposition to expert consensus across seven critical issues that enjoy substantial scientific consensus, as well as attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines and mitigation measures like mask-wearing and social distancing, found that those with the highest levels of opposition had the lowest levels of objective knowledge but the highest levels of subjective knowledge.
Research on overconfidence in beliefs is another area that argues for us to approach our views with humility, because of the relationship between overconfidence and mental health. We need to be reminded that where there is perception, there can be deception. Overconfidence in one’s view is often associated with a mental rigidity that causes suffering. If I am overconfident in my views, I will be argumentative and judgmental. I will think I know better than anyone what is best. This rigidity not only leads to conflict with others, but also to stress, irritability, and anxiety.
It is perhaps counter-intuitive, but there is a sense of empowerment and true confidence that comes from saying, “I don’t know.” For example, I might say, “I know little about mRNA technology; that’s outside my field.” “I don’t know, I have little experience with that.” “I don’t know what is best for you, because I’m not you.” We live in a modern, complex world with many moving parts we don’t fully understand (or at all). It is best to be humble and accept that. Being able to type keywords into a Google search box does not make me an expert. It makes me overconfident.